First, congratulations to Lindsay Whittle and Plaid Cymru on their victory in Caerphilly. And huge respect to our candidate Richard, who fought this campaign with grit and decency in the most difficult of circumstances, and to the hundreds of Labour members, volunteers and staff who worked their socks off for weeks on end.

Two quick reflections from me: 

The far-right polled over a third of the vote.

The fact that the far-right polled over a third of the vote should amplify the alarm bells already ringing across our Labour movement.

I have heard some say they’d prefer a Reform victory over Plaid because Reform would be an “easier” opponent for Labour long-term. I don’t buy that. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not thrilled Plaid won. But let’s remember that Reform threaten everything we value as progressives. 

Give them an inch and they will take a mile. That is how the far-right operates and we cannot, ever, allow that to happen.

We need a rapid renewal of our party ready for May (and beyond)

This cannot be brushed off as voters giving us a “bloody nose” and respond by saying “lessons will be learnt” if we don’t show what lessons have been learnt and how we are changing. That kind of complacency is exactly how parties lose touch and lose ground.

We don’t need a relaunch. We need to look hard at the fundamentals, and urgently renew our party, politically, organisationally, and yes - emotionally before next May. 

That task of renewal is not the sole responsibility of Eluned or Keir. That task falls to all of us: activists, candidates, councillors, MSs, and MPs. 

Kamala Harris said: “This is not a time to throw up our hands, this is a time to roll up our sleeves”. I agree with her, so let us all get cracking. 

This is something I’m talking a lot about to members in my selection campaign. I’m interested in your thoughts about what needs to change and how we keep Wales red next May.